Freakonomics
I just finished Freakonomics by Steven D. Levitt, University of Chicago Economist, and Stephen J. Dubner (name in slightly smaller print); New York Times credited Ghostwriter. Some of the stuff in the book is great; the book itself is slightly disappointing but worth a read (although I'd wait for the paperback).
The moral of the book is (a) correlation does not equal causation, or, more interestingly, (b) "conventional wisdom" is not wisdom at all, in fact, (crediting John Kenneth Galbraith), conventional wisdom must be "simple, convenient, comfortable, and comforting-- through not necessarily true." (p.90)
Levitt is portrayed in the book as a wacky, eccentric icononclast. I bet he's probably more of a geeky, odd Professor, but either way he is all about, as the cliche goes, "thinking out of the box."
Levitt's first big splash was his paper concerning the fact that the crime rate drop in the mid-90s was due to Roe v. Wade. He says that legalized abortion resulted in a fewer criminals. He (and his credited ghostwriter) are well aware of the potential for outrage on this, so they spend at least as much time apologizing for the conclusion as they do explaining it.
Other conventional-wisdom shattering stuff in the book (and I'm not giving it away, its on the book jacket and in the introduction) includes: 1) Its 100x more dangerous to have a swimming pool than it is to have a gun in the house; 2) standardized testing (aka the Virginia "Standards of Learning Tests" mandated by "No Child Left Behind" federal laws) encouranges teachers to cheat; 3) the "Manhattan miracle" attiributed to Mayor Guiliani and Chief Bratton (and their "broken window" theory of policing) was actually attributable to simply hiring more police, and 4) crack dealers don't get rich-- actually, they are often no better off than McDonald's salespeople, with a higher mortality rate. There are more nuggets about real estate agents and Klansmen, too.
The best part of the book, for me, was the chapter about parenting. You'd be surprised about the correlation/ causation fallacies in parenting. My favorite is this: there IS NOT a correlation between high test scores and the fact that the child's parents read to him every day. But there IS a correlation between high test scores and the fact that the child has many books in his home. (Think about why; you can probably figure it out). The book also gets into the "black-sounding name" debate-- Levitt is clearly not afraid to hop on third rails to see where they take him.
Again, the book has a bunch of good stuff; it is worth reading. However, it is never particularly coherent; it leaps all around. It has some great facts, and it suggests a new way to think critically, but it is ultimately too disjointed to be particularly satisfying. It seems like a great magazine article, padded out. Some of the Amazon reviewers think the same thing-- so here is the original New York Times Magazine piece by the authors.
The moral of the book is (a) correlation does not equal causation, or, more interestingly, (b) "conventional wisdom" is not wisdom at all, in fact, (crediting John Kenneth Galbraith), conventional wisdom must be "simple, convenient, comfortable, and comforting-- through not necessarily true." (p.90)
Levitt is portrayed in the book as a wacky, eccentric icononclast. I bet he's probably more of a geeky, odd Professor, but either way he is all about, as the cliche goes, "thinking out of the box."
Levitt's first big splash was his paper concerning the fact that the crime rate drop in the mid-90s was due to Roe v. Wade. He says that legalized abortion resulted in a fewer criminals. He (and his credited ghostwriter) are well aware of the potential for outrage on this, so they spend at least as much time apologizing for the conclusion as they do explaining it.
Other conventional-wisdom shattering stuff in the book (and I'm not giving it away, its on the book jacket and in the introduction) includes: 1) Its 100x more dangerous to have a swimming pool than it is to have a gun in the house; 2) standardized testing (aka the Virginia "Standards of Learning Tests" mandated by "No Child Left Behind" federal laws) encouranges teachers to cheat; 3) the "Manhattan miracle" attiributed to Mayor Guiliani and Chief Bratton (and their "broken window" theory of policing) was actually attributable to simply hiring more police, and 4) crack dealers don't get rich-- actually, they are often no better off than McDonald's salespeople, with a higher mortality rate. There are more nuggets about real estate agents and Klansmen, too.
The best part of the book, for me, was the chapter about parenting. You'd be surprised about the correlation/ causation fallacies in parenting. My favorite is this: there IS NOT a correlation between high test scores and the fact that the child's parents read to him every day. But there IS a correlation between high test scores and the fact that the child has many books in his home. (Think about why; you can probably figure it out). The book also gets into the "black-sounding name" debate-- Levitt is clearly not afraid to hop on third rails to see where they take him.
Again, the book has a bunch of good stuff; it is worth reading. However, it is never particularly coherent; it leaps all around. It has some great facts, and it suggests a new way to think critically, but it is ultimately too disjointed to be particularly satisfying. It seems like a great magazine article, padded out. Some of the Amazon reviewers think the same thing-- so here is the original New York Times Magazine piece by the authors.
posted by Virginian | 6:01 PM
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